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Heuristics and biases : the psychology of intuitive judgment / Thomas Gilovich, Dale Griffin, Daniel Kahneman Nível de parte analítica: Theory-driven reasoning about plausible pasts and probable futures in World politics • Heuristics and biases in application • Clinical versis actuarial judgment • The calibration of expert judgment : heuristics and biases beyond the laboratory • Do analysts overreact? • Assessing uncertainty in physical constants • Understanding misunderstanding : social psychological perspectives • When less is more : counterfactual thinking and satisfaction among olympic medalists • Like goes with like : the role of representativeness in erroneous and pseudo-scientific beliefs • The hothand in basketball : on the misperception of random sequences • Intuitive politicians, theologians, and presucutors : exploring the empirical implications of deviant functionalist metaphors • How good are fast and frugal heuristics? • Feelings as information : moods influence judgments and processing strategies • The use of statistical heuristics in everyday inductive reasoning • Remarks on support theory : recent advances and future directions • Unopacking, repaking, and anchoring : advances in support theory • Support theory : a nonextensional representation of subjective probability • Individual differences in reasoning : implications for the rationality debate? • The affect heuristic • Two systems of reasoning • Counterfactual thought, regret, and superstition : how to avoid kicking yourself • Norm theory : comparing reality of its alternatives • When presictions fail : the dilemma of unrealistic optimism • Ambiguity and self-evaluation : the role of ideosyncratic trait definitions in self-serving assessments of ability • Resistance of personal risk perceptions to debiasing interventions • Durability bias in effective forecasting • Robability judgment across cultures • Inside the planning fallacy : the causes and consequences of optimistic time predictions • The weighting of evidence and the determinantes of confidence • Compatibility effects in judgment and choice • Sympathetic magical thinking : the contagion and similarity heuristics • Mental contamination and the debiasing problem • Inferential correction • Self-anchoring in conversation : why language users do not do what they should • Putting adjustment back in the anchoring and adjustment heuristic • Incorporating the irrelevant : anchors in judgment of belief and value • Imagining can heighten or lower the perceived likelihood of contracting a sideade : the mediating effect of ease of imagery • How alike is it? versus how likely is it? : a disjuntion fallacy is probability judgments • Representativeness revisited : attribute substitution in intuitive judgment • Extensional versus intuitive reasoning : the conjunction in probability judgment • Introduction - heuristics and biases : then and nowPublicação: New York : Cambridge University Press, 2002Descrição: 857 p.Disponibilidade:
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