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Judgment under uncertainty : heuristics and biases / compil. Daniel Kahneman ; co-aut. Paul Slovic ; co-aut. Amos TverskyNível de parte analítica: Facts versus fears : understanding perceived risk • Vitality of mythical numbers • Robust beauty of improper linear models in decision making • Inferences of personal characteristics on the basis of information retrieved from one's memory • Best-guess hypothesis in multistage inference • Conservation in human information processing • Evaluation of compound probabilities in sequential choice • Progress report on the training of probability assessors • Overconfidence in case-study judgments • Learning from experience and suboptimal rules in decision making • Probabilistic reasoning in clinical medicine : problems and opportunities • Test results are what you think they are • Illusion of control • Availability bias in social perception and interaction • Egocentric biases in availability and attribution • Informal covariation assessment : data-based versus theory-based judgments • Shortcomings in the attribution process : on the origins and maintenance of erroneous social assessment • Improving inductive inference • Popular induction : information is not necessarily informative • Debiasing • For those condemned to study the past : heuristics and biases in hindsight • Calibration of probabilities : the state of the art to 1980 • Studies of representativeness • Variants of uncertainty • On the study of statistical intuitions • Intuitive prediction : biases and corrective procedures • Simulation heuristic • Avaibility : a heuristic for judging frequency and probability • Evidential impact of base rates • Causal schemas in judgments under uncertainty • Judgments of and by representativeness • On the psychology of prediction • Subjective probability : a judgment of representativeness • Belief in the law of small numbers • Judgment under uncertainty : heuristics and biasesPublicação: Cambridge : Cambridge University Press, 1982Descrição: 555 p.Disponibilidade:

2.
Decision making. descriptive, normative, and prescriptive interactions / compil. David Bell ; co-aut. Howard Raiffa ; co-aut. Amos TverskyNível de parte analítica: Discussion agenda for the session on medical decision making : minutes of a group discussion on clinical decision making • Effects of private attitudes on public policy-, prenatal screening for naural tube defects as prototype • Whether or not to administer amphotericin to an immunosuppressed patient with hematologic malignancy and undiagnosed ... • On the framing of medical decisions • Problems in producing usable knowledge for implementing liberating alternatives • How senior managers think • Relevance of quasi rationality in competitive markets • Behavior under uncertainty and its implications for policy • Value-focused thinking and the study of values • Simplicity in decision analysis : an example and a discussion • Sources of bias in assessment procedures for utility functions • Knowing what you want : measuring labile values • Marginal value and instrinsic risk aversion • Disappointment decision making under uncertainty • Mind as a consuming organ • Effects of statistical training on thinking about everyday problems • Probability, evidence, and judgment • Updating subjective probability • Languages and decisions for probability judgment • Savage revisited • Rational choice and the framing of decisions • Response mode, framing, and information-processing effects in risk assessment • Reply to commentaries • Behavioral decision theory : processes of judgment and choice • Risky choice revisited • Normative theories of decision making under risk and under uncertainty • Rationality as process and as product of thought • Bounded rationality, ambiguity, and the engineering of choice • Descriptive, normative, and prescriptive interactions in decision makingPublicação: Cambridge : Cambridge University Press, 1988Descrição: 623 p.Disponibilidade:

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